Kalshi, a US prediction market, told Barron’s its markets on the 2026 Oscars drew more than US$105 million in trading. Rival Polymarket was the official prediction market partner of the Golden Globes in January and put live odds on screen during the red-carpet preshow.
Supporters see these markets as polling with money on the line. New Zealand Initiative chief economist Eric Crampton told RNZ prediction markets have produced accurate forecasts on elections, inflation and interest rates. “Regulating this space as gambling makes little sense,” he said.
Where New Zealand stands
The Department of Internal Affairs disagrees with Crampton. In February it wrote to Kalshi and Polymarket saying their products meet the Gambling Act 2003 definitions of gambling and bookmaking, and that their sports contracts breach TAB NZ’s betting monopoly under the Racing Industry Act 2020. Director of gambling Vicki Scott told RNZ the platforms must stop offering services to New Zealanders.
Kalshi shut New Zealand accounts almost immediately. Scott told Newsroom that Polymarket confirmed in July it was withdrawing. Polymarket’s developer documentation now lists New Zealand as close-only, so users can close existing positions but can’t open new ones.
Scott said taking part is technically an offence, but the department won’t penalise individual users. Its focus is the platforms.
No licensed route is on the way. The Online Casino Gambling Act 2026, in force since 1 May, allows up to 15 licences for online slots, table games and bets on computer-simulated sport. Internal Affairs told Newsroom in February that prediction markets weren’t intended to be caught by the new regime.
TAB NZ is the only legal provider of online race and sports betting. The Racing Industry Act defines a sporting event as a competition with human competitors run under a national sporting body.
The insider problem
Pre-recorded shows are where insider risk has already surfaced. Kalshi fined an editor on MrBeast’s YouTube show about US$20,000 in February and suspended him for two years, after he traded around US$4,000 on markets about the channel. Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, said the editor likely had access to material non-public information.
Kalshi said it had opened 200 insider trading investigations in the past year. Massey University professor Thomas Pfeiffer told The Spinoff that, from a libertarian view, insider information can make prices more accurate. He also said the typical user is likely younger, male and more risk-loving.
US regulators are still drawing the line. A Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal published in June treats the Academy Awards as a contest rather than gaming. It asks whether game shows, reality competitions and pageants should count as gaming, noting that some competitions may depart from fairness standards to add entertainment value.
The harm side is measurable here. The Ministry of Health’s gambling harm strategy, drawing on the New Zealand Gambling Survey 2023/24, found 8.3% of New Zealanders experienced some harm from gambling in the previous year, and 2.4% were at moderate or high risk. People aged 15 to 24 made up about a quarter of that higher-risk group, and the strategy says online gambling carries higher harm rates than gambling in person.
What it means for media and brands
In the US, Kalshi has deals with CNN, CNBC and Fox, and Polymarket has partnerships with Substack and Dow Jones. Here, the Gambling Act bars anyone from publishing an overseas gambling advertisement, with fines of up to $10,000.
Internal Affairs treats prediction markets as gambling. A New Zealand broadcaster, publisher or brand weighing a sponsored odds graphic or a prediction market tie-up would need legal advice first.
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