27th April 2026
New Zealand’s population is ageing at a faster rate than previously expected, and new projections show this shift is reshaping the structure of the economy in significant and long-term ways.
The 2026 update of the Business of Ageing series, which was last comprehensively revised in 2023, draws on the latest population projections and economic data rebased to 2024.
Using a 50-year outlook, the analysis tracks how people aged 65 and over are contributing to the economy through work, taxes, spending, and unpaid activity such as caregiving and volunteering.
The findings confirm that population ageing is not a temporary adjustment, but a structural shift with wide-ranging implications. Older New Zealanders are playing an increasingly important role in the labour market.
People aged 65 and over now account for a larger share of the workforce than at any point since the series began. Their paid work is currently valued at close to $9 billion annually, while the estimated value of their unpaid activity exceeds $20 billion for the first time.
Labour force participation among older people is also expected to grow in absolute terms. The number of workers aged 65+ is projected to rise from 217,400 in 2024 to 477,800 by 2074, lifting their share of the total workforce from 7.1% to 10.9%.
While overall participation rates are forecast to decline slightly over time, from 24.9% to 22.4%, this reflects strong growth in the population aged 80 and over rather than reduced engagement among older workers.
Income patterns are also expected to shift significantly. Earnings from paid work among older New Zealanders are projected to increase from $8.7 billion to $50.2 billion by 2074, with self-employment driving much of this growth.
Income from savings and investments is also set to rise sharply, increasing from $14.2 billion to $104.7 billion.
Tax contributions from older people are expected to grow substantially as both incomes and population numbers increase, reaching up to $93.7 billion by 2074 when GST effects are included.
At the same time, consumer spending by those aged 65+ is forecast to grow from $54.7 billion to $357.7 billion, with food, transport and recreation leading expenditure categories.
Overall, the projections highlight a long-term economic transition in which ageing is reshaping labour markets, household finances, and consumption patterns across New Zealand.
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