For more than 170 years, the New Zealand Census has been a vital tool for understanding the country’s population and planning services. But that’s about to change. Stats NZ has announced it will end the traditional five-yearly census after 2023. Instead, starting in 2030, population data will come from existing government records, combined with annual surveys.
From census forms to admin files
The shift represents one of the most significant changes in New Zealand’s approach to data collection in modern history.
Instead of a nationwide count every five years, Stats NZ will use administrative data to track population changes, conduct annual surveys to fill knowledge gaps, and carry out targeted data collection for specific groups and topics as needed.
Why Stats NZ is making the change
“Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations,” Statistics Minister Dr Shane Reti said.
The challenges of reaching all communities, especially in remote and diverse areas, have compounded over time.
“By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people’s lives.
“This approach will save time and money while delivering more timely insights into New Zealand’s population,” he said.
Meeting changing information needs
“People’s information needs are changing,” Acting Stats NZ Chief Executive and Government Statistician Mary Craig said. She says the change will ensure that Stats NZ continues to deliver data that improves lives today and for generations to come, especially as the need for information is growing exponentially.
She noted that people now expect faster, more accessible insights, not figures that are five years out of date.
“These changes will help ensure Stats NZ continues to adapt and provide high-quality information that supports New Zealand’s economic and social wellbeing,” she said.
The rising cost of the count
The traditional census has become increasingly expensive and difficult to run. The 2023 census cost over $300 million, and the next one was expected to cost even more. Participation rates have also declined, especially among Māori, Pasifika, and other groups, which has affected the quality of the data.
Digital divides, mistrust of government, and survey fatigue are all factors contributing to lower participation.
Administrative data to fill the gap
At the same time, demand for more timely and detailed information has grown. Waiting five years for census data no longer meets the needs of government agencies, local councils, businesses, and communities.
Using administrative data, information already collected by government agencies such as tax, health, and education records, along with targeted surveys, Stats NZ aims to provide more frequent and accurate population statistics.
“This is an exciting and necessary change. The traditional way of running a nationwide survey on census day can no longer be justified, due to rising costs, declining survey response rates, and disruption from events, like Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023,” Craig said.
“From 2030, key New Zealand census data and statistics will be produced every year, in a cost-effective and sustainable way.
“By tapping into information New Zealanders have already provided, we will deliver more relevant, useful, and timely data to help inform quality planning and decision making.”
The move brings New Zealand in line with a growing international trend toward using administrative data in population statistics.
Tatau tātou questioned
The move to draw from existing data pools has drawn mixed reactions. Many experts acknowledge that the traditional census was becoming unsustainable and welcome the potential for more timely data.
But there are warnings that the new approach must be carefully managed to avoid undercounting vulnerable populations and losing important details about New Zealanders’ lives.
Equity concerns from Māori and Pacific leaders
“All of us count – Tatau tātou” was the tagline for the 2023 Census, but some critics question whether this is still believed.
“The decision to rely on administrative data rather than a full Census is a blow to vulnerable communities and rural Māori communities,” said Principal Economist at NZIER, Dr Bill Kaye-Blake.
“The announced change says, ‘we don’t want to know’ to struggling rural Māori communities.”
“Pacific peoples have been consistently undercounted in Aotearoa’s official statistics, distorting population estimates and undermining equity in health, services, and resource allocation,” Dr Gerard Sonder and Dr Debbie Ryan of Pacific Perspectives Ltd commented.
“Stats NZ’s shift to an admin data-first census, after two censuses that failed to equitably represent all New Zealanders, risks worsening these gaps by relying on fragmented records and flawed probabilistic linkages.
“This method falls short of Stats NZ’s accuracy benchmarks, especially for mobile and underserved groups like Pacific communities, and key issues, such as ethnicity misclassification, remain unresolved.”
Community leaders fear that replacing self-reported data with inferred statistics may erase important nuances of identity and experience.
Expert view on data quality trade-offs
Director of the Centre for Social Data Analytics at Auckland University of Technology, Professor Rhema Vaithianathan, said the census has become expensive. Still, administrative data is inadequate in certain areas.
“Most of these administrative data systems do not have good-quality self-identified ethnicity. As one of the most ethnically diverse populations in the world, New Zealand needs a very good understanding of what’s happening within its ethnic minorities.
“However, I do agree that there are many, many questions that are asked in the census that could be more reliably collected from administrative data. For example, personal income. We are much better collecting that from IRD administrative data than from the census.”
A costly count
“Relying solely on a nationwide census day is no longer financially viable. In 2013, the census cost $104 million. In 2023, costs had risen astronomically to $325 million, and the next was expected to come in at $400 million over five years,” Dr Shane Reti said.
Beyond the census: Monthly CPI data to begin
New funding of $16.5 million over four years is set to allow Statistics New Zealand to deliver monthly CPIs from 2027.
“The CPI is a key indicator of economic health and is used in monetary policy to set interest rates and index contracts, and influences things like benefit payments,” Mary Craig said.
“Inflation affects interest rates, benefit adjustments, and household budgets. Timely data helps ensure Kiwis are better supported in a fast-changing environment,” said Dr Reti.
Stats NZ says the shift toward more frequent and integrated data will ultimately offer better value for money.
Back to basics at Stats NZ
The changes mark a reset for Stats NZ, Dr Reti said. “Some outputs have not met the standard expected of a world-class statistics agency. We’re getting back to basics – measuring what matters.
“Our goal is a modern, efficient, and reliable data system that delivers the insights New Zealand needs now and into the future.”
While the traditional census has served the country well for many decades, the new approach aims to provide better and faster data, if it can overcome the challenges ahead.
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