Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young says the December quarter is when most retailers do their biggest trade, and many rely on a good festive season to carry them through the slower months. This year they’re heading into it with less momentum than they’d like.
Paymark’s figures show core retail spending on its payments network fell 1.3% in September 2026 compared with a year earlier, after a 1.8% drop in August. Chief sales officer Bruce Proffit says rising petrol prices, higher interest rates and a cold, wet end to the month may all have played a part. “This shows New Zealand in 2026 is off to a slower start to the usual end-of-year surge,” he says.
A slow start puts more weight on the weeks that are left. Last year’s numbers show where they fall.
Plan around the peak days
Black Friday is 27 November this year. In 2025 it was the busiest day of the year to that point for non-food retailers on the network, then branded Worldline NZ, with $55.6 million spent. That was still 6.2% below Black Friday 2024.
Proffit said clothing stores beat the year before while spending elsewhere was generally down.
Boxing Day was quieter. Non-food stores took $51.2 million on 26 December 2025, down 12.4% on 2024. Proffit says clothing retailers still did well that day, but most other non-food stores had their busiest days in the two days before Christmas.
Food and liquor stores were busiest in the run-up to Christmas Day, and hospitality on December Saturdays. Hospitality’s likely peak, Saturday 20 December, came in 3.8% below the 2024 peak, which Proffit read as more modest spending on Christmas parties.
Stock orders and rosters can follow the same calendar. Canterbury businesses have an extra date to plan for, with Show Day on Friday 13 November.
Online is growing. Proffit says online spending through the network rose 18.9% in December 2025.
NZ Post expected about 2.4 million parcels in Black Friday week, around 800,000 more than a normal week, and last year its final domestic sending day was 18 December for Economy and 22 December for courier. Once this year’s dates are out, put your own order-by date on the website.
Make sure the discount is real
The Commerce Commission’s pricing guidance says discounts must come off the usual selling price, and a sale should be a brief, limited chance to buy at a reduced price. A “was” price can mislead if the business never charged it, inflated it before the sale or rarely sold at it. A promotional price that runs all the time becomes the usual price.
The commission gives an example. If a product sold for $15, then $12, advertising “was $15, now $10” overstates the saving. “Was $12, now $10” is accurate.
Election timing adds another check. Young says cost-of-living worries are likely being compounded by uncertainty heading into the 7 November election.
Under the Electoral Act 1993, an ad that could reasonably be seen as encouraging people to vote for or against a type of party or candidate is an election advertisement, even if it names no one. On polling day, publishing anything likely to influence a vote carries a fine of up to $20,000. Hold anything election-themed until the polls close.
Use the quiet weeks well
Spending falls away after Christmas. Core retail on the network went from $4.702 billion in December 2025 to $4.023 billion in January 2026, about $680 million less.
That lull is the time to thank customers and ask for reviews. The Commerce Commission’s guidance says reviews must be genuine and shown in a way that doesn’t mislead readers about what the reviewer meant. Ask every customer, and publish the lukewarm ones alongside the glowing ones.
Christmas Day falls on a Friday this year and New Year’s Day on the following Friday, so if you’re closing over the break, schedule January’s emails, posts and offers before you shut the laptop, and the new year starts with something already working.
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